Homeowners have been kept waiting again today with the Reserve Bank holding interest rates steady for a seventh consecutive time at 4.35%, further delaying a long hoped-for cut.
The board held its fifth meeting of the year on Tuesday following a month of reported tumultuous relations with the federal government as both continue to try to tame inflation.
The decision to keep interest rates stable for more than 10 months comes after key Australian Bureau of Statistics inflation data released earlier this month showed some small-scale growth for the Australian economy, but revealed a sixth consecutive quarterly decline for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michelle Bullock has announced interest rates will stay at 4.35%. Picture: Getty
The decision to keep Australian rates flat came after the US Federal Reserve’s slashing of interest rates from a 23-year high by half a percentage point last week.
The move was the first reduction in four years for the most influential central bank, following similar moves made across Europe, the UK, New Zealand, and China.
Despite recent data showing the Australian economy is tracking through a period of weak growth, PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the sustained pause on rates makes it clear the Reserve Bank is still trying to balance downside risks for growth and the labour market.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, with the number of unemployed growing by 24,000 people and employed by around 58,000.
“Households are under pressure and retail sales and consumption are weak, while consumer sentiment remains low,” Ms Creagh said. “Though employment growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in August, the labour market has softened over the past year.”
PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said Australia’s labour market had softened in the past year. Photo: Supplied
The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) RBA Target Rate Tracker last week predicted homeowners could be set to benefit from four rate cuts over a seven-month period next year.
For now, however, Mortgage Choice chief executive Anthony Waldron said inflation levels “are still not low enough for the RBA to consider cutting the cash rate yet”.
“The ABS revealed that annual economic growth over the June quarter was the slowest since the 1991-92 financial year, suggesting that current interest rates are putting downward pressure on Australia’s economic growth,” he said.
While inflation has started to ease, the economy’s journey to the 2-3% target remains fraught with hurdles.
Prior to the release of today’s data, the RBA’s rate tracker put the chance of a rate cut at just 10%, largely linked to elevated price pressures and low consumer sentiment.
This backed up predictions from Westpac, National Australia Bank and ANZ that rate cuts will have to wait until next year. Only the Commonwealth Bank was expecting any downward movement in 2024, having pushed back its November prediction to December.
The cash rate has been increased 13 times since May 2022 – a hard pill to swallow for Australians holding variable home-loans or trying to get onto the property ladder.
After more than two years of rising rates, Australian homeowners would notice a tangible difference from even an 0.25% rate cut.
However, Mr Waldron said today’s decision would be “welcome news to borrowers and hopeful buyers looking to get a foot on the property ladder”, as another hold was still better than an increase.
Home price growth has persisted despite the high-interest rate environment, with prices in August cycling through 20 consecutive months of growth, Ms Creagh said.
Australia’s median home value is $790,000 according to the latest PropTrack Home Price Index.
Perth recorded a monthly home price growth of 0.8%, the largest of any state or territory capital, while Melbourne and Darwin were the only capitals to see declines in August (-0.2% and -0.3% respectively).
Strong monthly growth was also seen in Hobart (0.6%), Adelaide (0.5%), Brisbane (0.4%), while prices declined slightly in regional South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
Though prices lifted nationally by just 0.2% – the smallest monthly increase since prices stopped falling in late 2022 – Ms Creagh said a boost in spring listing numbers would likely bring further price increases.
“Home prices are expected to rise in the period ahead as activity ramps up into the spring selling season,” she said. “However, the expected uplift in choice, the uncertainty around timing of interest rate cuts and affordability constraints are likely to reduce the pace of price growth.”
Mr Waldron said both prospective buyers and those already on the ladder can take steps to prepare themselves for calmer waters.
“If you are hoping to buy in spring and don’t yet have a pre-approval, I’d encourage you to meet with a mortgage broker to get pre-approval sorted and ensure you’re in a position to make an offer as soon as you have found a property to purchase,” he said.
Mortgage Choice chief executive Anthony Waldron said inflation was not low enough to warrant a rate cut. Picture: REA Group
“For borrowers who have not reviewed their loan so far in 2024, now is a great time to meet with a broker to check your loan still meets your needs.”
Home loan submission data from Mortgage Choice showed borrowers were continuing to opt for variable home loans for now.
In August, just 3% of loans had a fixed component, a trend Mr Waldron confirmed was so far continuing into this month.
Inflation figures set to be released tomorrow will likely paint a more promising picture than in recent months, with wide-spread speculation among economists that the Consumer Price Index will drop from its current level of 3.8%.
Speaking on Sky News this week, treasurer Jim Chalmers optimistically said he expected tomorrow’s figures to be “welcome progress towards lower inflation”.
“Whether it’s in the low threes or in the high twos, what it will show is that inflation in monthly terms is around half what we inherited a couple of years ago when we came to office, so that would be welcome and encouraging progress.
“What we’ve seen over a period of time now is inflation has come off quite substantially.”
Breaking under 3% this week would further fuel the likelihood of a November rate cut, providing some much-needed relief to Aussie homeowners in time for Christmas.
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